为什么美元走强是危险的

经济学人：

The dollar is looking increasingly formidable. As American growth has stayed strong and investors have scaled back bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, money has flooded into the country’s markets—and the greenback has shot up. It has risen by 4% this year, measured against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, and the fundamentals point to further appreciation. With a presidential election looming, and both Democrats and Republicans determined to promote American manufacturing, the world is on the verge of a difficult new period of strong-dollar geopolitics.

美元看起来越来越强大。随着美国经济增长保持强劲，投资者缩减了对美联储将降息的押注，资金涌入美国市场，美元飙升。以贸易加权的一篮子货币衡量，它今年上涨了 4%，基本面表明进一步升值。随着总统大选的临近，民主党人和共和党人都决心促进美国制造业的发展，世界正处于强势美元地缘政治的艰难新时期的边缘。

This situation is made still more difficult by the fact that the currency’s strength reflects weakness elsewhere. By the end of 2023, America’s economy was 8% larger than at the end of 2019. Those of Britain, France, Germany and Japan each grew by less than 2% during the same period. The yen is at a 34-year low against the dollar. The euro has dropped to $1.07 from $1.10 at the start of the year (see chart 1). Some traders are now betting that the pair will reach parity by the beginning of next year.

由于货币的强势反映了其他地方的疲软，这种情况变得更加困难。截至 2023 年底，美国经济比 2019 年底增长了 8%。同期，英国、法国、德国和日本的增幅均不到 2%。日元兑美元汇率处于 34 年低点。欧元已从年初的 1.10 美元跌至 1.07 美元（见图 1）。一些交易员现在押注该货币对将在明年年初达到平价。

Chart: The Economist 图：《经济学人》

Should Donald Trump win in November, the scene is therefore set for a fight. A strong dollar tends to raise the price of American exports and lower the price of imports, which would widen the country’s persistent trade deficit—a bugbear of Mr Trump’s for many decades. Robert Lighthizer, the architect of tariffs against China during Mr Trump’s time in the White House, wants to weaken the dollar, according to Politico, a news website. President Joe Biden has made no public pronouncements on the currency, but a strong dollar complicates his manufacturing agenda.

因此，如果唐纳德 · 特朗普在 11 月获胜，那么一场战斗就注定了。强势美元往往会提高美国出口产品的价格，降低进口产品的价格，这将扩大该国持续的贸易逆差——这是特朗普几十年来一直以来的毛病。 据新闻网站 Politico 报道，特朗普入主白宫期间对中国征收关税的设计师罗伯特 · 莱特希泽（Robert Lighthizer）希望削弱美元。美国总统乔 · 拜登（Joe Biden）没有就该货币发表公开声明，但强势美元使他的制造业议程复杂化。

Elsewhere, a mighty greenback is good for exporters that have costs denominated in other currencies. But high American interest rates and a strong dollar generate imported inflation, which is now exacerbated by relatively high oil prices. In addition, companies that have borrowed in dollars face steeper repayments. On April 18th Kristalina Georgieva, head of the IMF, warned about the impact of these developments on global financial stability.

在其他地方，强大的美元对那些以其他货币计价的出口商有利。但美国高利率和强势美元产生了输入性通胀，而相对较高的油价现在又加剧了这种通胀。此外，以美元借款的公司面临更高的还款额。4 月 18 日，国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜 · 格奥尔基耶娃（Kristalina Georgieva）警告称，这些事态发展对全球金融稳定的影响。

Many countries have ample foreign-exchange reserves that they could sell to bolster their currencies: Japan has $1.3trn, India $643bn and South Korea $419bn. Yet any relief would be temporary. Although sales slowed the strengthening of the dollar in 2022, when the Fed began raising interest rates, they did not stop it. Central banks and finance ministries are loth to waste their holdings on fruitless fights.

许多国家拥有充足的外汇储备，可以出售这些外汇储备来支撑本国货币：日本有 1.3 万亿美元，印度有 6430 亿美元，韩国有 4190 亿美元。然而，任何缓解都是暂时的。尽管销售减缓了 2022 年美元的走强，但当美联储开始加息时，他们并没有阻止它。各国央行和财政部不愿将持有的资产浪费在徒劳无功的斗争上。

Another option is international co-ordination to halt the greenback’s climb. The start of this was on display on April 16th, when the finance ministers of America, Japan and South Korea expressed concern about the slump of the yen and won. This may be the precursor to more intervention—in the form of joint sales of foreign-exchange reserves—to prevent the two Asian currencies from weakening further.

另一种选择是国际协调，以阻止美元的攀升。4 月 16 日，美国、日本和韩国的财长对日元贬值表示担忧，并取得了胜利。这可能是采取更多干预措施（以联合出售外汇储备的形式）的先兆，以防止这两种亚洲货币进一步贬值。

But as much as these countries may want to be on the same page, economics is unavoidably pulling them apart. After all, yen and won weakness is driven by the gap in interest rates between America and other countries. South Korea’s two-year government bonds offer a return of around 3.5%, and Japan’s just 0.3%, while American Treasuries maturing at the same time offer 5% (see chart 2). If interest rates stay markedly higher in America, investors seeking returns face a straightforward choice—and their decisions will buttress the dollar.

但是，尽管这些国家可能希望站在同一起跑线上，但经济不可避免地将它们拉开了距离。毕竟，日元和韩元的疲软是由美国与其他国家之间的利率差距推动的。韩国两年期国债的回报率约为 3.5%，而日本的回报率仅为 0.3%，而同时到期的美国国债的回报率为 5%（见图 2）。如果美国的利率保持在明显较高的水平，寻求回报的投资者将面临一个直接的选择——他们的决定将支撑美元。

Chart: The Economist 图：《经济学人》

Then there are countries with which America is less likely to co-operate. According to Goldman Sachs, a bank, China saw $39bn or so in foreign-exchange outflows in March as investors fled the country’s languishing economy—the fourth most of any month since 2016. The yuan has weakened steadily against the dollar since the beginning of the year, and more rapidly from mid-March, since when the dollar has risen from 7.18 yuan to 7.25. Bank of America expects it to reach 7.45 by September, when America’s election campaign will be in full flow. That would put the yuan at its weakest since 2007, providing a boost to China’s government’s latest export drive. Cheap Chinese electric vehicles may be about to become even cheaper, infuriating American politicians.

还有一些国家，美国不太可能与之合作。根据银行高盛（Goldman Sachs）的数据，随着投资者逃离中国萎靡不振的经济，中国 3 月份的外汇流出量约为 390 亿美元，这是自 2016 年以来的第四大月份。自今年年初以来，人民币兑美元稳步走弱，从 3 月中旬开始走快，美元从 7.18 元升至 7.25。美国银行预计，到 9 月，该指数将达到 7.45，届时美国的竞选活动将如火如荼。这将使人民币汇率达到 2007 年以来的最低水平，从而推动中国政府最近的出动。廉价的中国电动汽车可能即将变得更便宜，这激怒了美国政客。

Even protectionists in America may be willing to overlook allies’ weak currencies, at least for a time. They are less likely to for China. This raises the risk of further tariffs and sanctions, and maybe even the return of China to America’s list of currency manipulators. So long as America’s economy outperforms, the dollar is likely to remain strong. And so long as American politicians see that as a cause for concern, trade tensions will rise. ■

即使是美国的贸易保护主义者也可能愿意忽视盟国疲软的货币，至少在一段时间内是这样。对于中国来说，他们不太可能这样做。这增加了进一步关税和制裁的风险，甚至可能使中国重返美国的汇率操纵国名单。只要美国经济跑赢大盘，美元就可能保持强势。只要美国政客认为这是一个令人担忧的原因，贸易紧张局势就会加剧。