不要对特斯拉及其电动汽车竞争对手感到悲观

经济学人：

Could donald trump be right about electric vehicles? In March America’s former president, and its ev-basher-in-chief, complained that they “cost too much” and “don’t go far”. Many car buyers seem to agree. In America deliveries have not risen in three quarters. In greener-than-thou Europe they fell last month, by 11% year on year. On April 23rd Tesla, a byword for the electric revolution, reported poor quarterly results, with falling sales and revenues. It has shed $330bn in stockmarket value since January 1st. Five ev wannabes, collectively worth close to $400bn in 2021, are valued at a mere $58bn today.

唐纳德·特朗普关于电动汽车的看法可能是正确的吗？今年三月，美国前总统及其反电动势大佬抱怨说，它们“成本太高”而且“走不了多远”。许多购车者似乎都同意这一点。在美国，交付量已连续三个季度没有增长。在“比你更环保”的欧洲，上个月的数字同比下降了 11%。 4 月 23 日，电动革命代名词特斯拉公布了糟糕的季度业绩，销量和收入均下降。自 1 月 1 日以来，该公司股票市值已缩水 3300 亿美元。到 2021 年，五家电动汽车公司的总市值将接近 4000 亿美元，而如今的估值仅为 580 亿美元。

Having raced to boost ev production, established carmakers are slamming on the brakes. Ford has delayed $12bn in planned ev investments. Mercedes-Benz says it will reach its goal of selling as many evs as petrol cars by 2030, five years later than originally promised. You may conclude that the electrified future is in peril.

在竞相提高电动汽车产量后，老牌汽车制造商正在急刹车。福特推迟了 120 亿美元的电动汽车投资计划。梅赛德斯-奔驰表示，将在 2030 年实现电动汽车销量与汽油车一样多的目标，比最初承诺的时间晚了五年。您可能会得出这样的结论：电气化的未来正处于危险之中。

That would be much too gloomy. In fact there are good reasons to expect demand to pick up. The industry may well emerge from today’s slowdown on a more sustainable course towards carbon-free motoring.

那就太悲观了。事实上，我们有充分的理由预计需求将会回升。该行业很可能会从当今的经济放缓中走上一条更可持续的道路，迈向无碳汽车。

One reason for optimism is that the recent slowdown partly reflects cyclical factors. Sales grew rapidly in 2021 and 2022 as cash-rich consumers went on a post-pandemic spending spree. Many evs that are not being bought now were purchased back then—as were lots of laptops, smartphones and other durable gizmos that are now languishing. Higher interest rates mean that Americans who paid less than 5% a year on a car loan two years ago now have to pay more than 8%. That is a problem, especially when in many places the typical ev remains 40-60% pricier than its petrol-powered alternative.

乐观的原因之一是，近期经济放缓部分反映了周期性因素。随着现金充裕的消费者在疫情后继续疯狂消费，2021 年和 2022 年销售额迅速增长。许多现在不再购买的电动汽车都是在那时购买的——许多笔记本电脑、智能手机和其他现在已经陷入困境的耐用小玩意也是如此。更高的利率意味着两年前每年支付的汽车贷款利率低于 5% 的美国人现在必须支付超过 8% 的利率。这是一个问题，尤其是在许多地方，典型的电动汽车仍然比汽油动力替代品贵 40-60%。

Mr Trump may have a point on evs’ cost today, but not for much longer—another reason to dismiss the gloom. The green premium is narrowing for many models. Prices of battery minerals such as lithium have fallen, as have prices of the cells they go into. Five years ago electric suvs were two to three times the cost of their gas-guzzling cousins, without being two to three times as good. Today you can buy a Ford f-150 Lightning for less than $40,000, just $4,000 more than the gasoline version of the popular pickup—$4,000 that you earn back in a single year by not having to fill up with petrol (which, in contrast to lithium, is not getting cheaper). It is easier to juice up, too, at one of roughly 200,000 charging ports across America, twice the number available in 2020. In China electric cars are already the cheaper option on average, says the International Energy Agency, an official forecaster, even before running costs. Small evs are two-thirds the price of a comparable fossil-fuel runaround. A new survey by AlixPartners, a consultancy, found that 97% of Chinese car buyers say their next car will run on batteries.

特朗普先生今天对电动汽车成本的看法可能有道理，但不会持续太久——这是消除悲观情绪的另一个原因。许多车型的绿色溢价正在缩小。锂等电池矿物的价格已经下跌，其所用电池的价格也下跌了。五年前，电动SUV的成本是耗油量高的SUV的两到三倍，但性能却没有提高两到三倍。如今，您可以以不到 40,000 美元的价格购买一辆福特 f-150 Lightning，仅比这款流行皮卡的汽油版贵 4,000 美元——无需加油，您一年就可以赚回 4,000 美元（这与汽油版不同）锂，并没有变得更便宜）。在美国大约有 20 万个充电端口之一，充电也更容易，是 2020 年充电端口数量的两倍。官方预测机构国际能源署表示，在中国，电动汽车平均来说已经是更便宜的选择。运营成本。小型电动汽车的价格是同类化石燃料电动汽车的三分之二。咨询公司 AlixPartners 的一项新调查发现，97% 的中国购车者表示他们的下一辆车将使用电池。

Established carmakers may also draw lessons from the Chinese experience. Whereas early adopters bought a Tesla as a status symbol, the Chinese are now buying common-or-garden byds because they are good value. Western makers should fixate less on high-end models and stop neglecting the middle-of-the-road. Until they do, high prices will keep demand subdued and economies of scale elusive. Ford expects its pickup-obsessed electric division to lose at least $5bn this year.

老牌汽车制造商也可以借鉴中国的经验。早期采用者购买特斯拉是作为身份象征，而中国人现在则购买普通或普通的比亚迪汽车，因为它们物有所值。西方制造商应该减少对高端车型的关注，并停止忽视中庸之道。在此之前，高价格将使需求受到抑制，规模经济难以实现。福特预计其专注于皮卡的电动部门今年将损失至少 50 亿美元。

The fact that investors are becoming more discerning should help. They are no longer prepared to pour billions into any e-startup with a passable slide deck. And they are rewarding firms with mass-market ambitions. Tesla’s stock price plunged when it was reported earlier this month that Elon Musk would scrap a $25,000 Tesla in favour of a fleet of self-driving robots. The share price bounced back on April 23rd, after he performed a u-turn. Shares in General Motors, whose bosses talked up its coming mass-market evs on an earnings call this week, have gained 25% so far this year.

投资者变得更加挑剔这一事实应该会有所帮助。他们不再准备向任何幻灯​​片还过得去的电子初创公司投入数十亿美元。他们正在奖励那些拥有大众市场雄心的公司。本月早些时候有报道称，埃隆·马斯克将废弃一辆价值 25,000 美元的特斯拉汽车，转而购买一批自动驾驶机器人，特斯拉股价因此暴跌。 4月23日，在他掉头后，股价反弹。通用汽车公司(General Motors)的股价今年迄今已上涨25%，该公司的老板在本周的财报电话会议上谈到了即将推出的大众市场电动汽车。

Western governments concerned about climate change and their exposure to oil prices could do more to speed along the ev revolution, by allowing Chinese carmakers into their markets. AlixPartners found that seven in ten Americans, Britons, French and Germans would consider an ev from China if it cost 20% less than a non-Chinese alternative—which is close to the real price difference.

担心气候变化和油价风险的西方政府可以采取更多措施，允许中国汽车制造商进入其市场，以加速电动汽车革命。 AlixPartners 发现，如果中国电动汽车的成本比非中国替代品低 20%（接近实际价格差异），十分之七的美国人、英国人、法国人和德国人会考虑购买中国电动汽车。

So far policymakers have focused on expanding charging capacity (which is welcome) and handing out subsidies (which is less so). They would do better to lift the barriers that keep Chinese evs from their roads. That would please motorists and, by boosting competition, jolt established carmakers into cleaning up their ev act. ■

到目前为止，政策制定者的重点是扩大充电能力（这是受欢迎的）和发放补贴（这是不那么受欢迎的）。他们应该更好地消除阻碍中国电动汽车上路的障碍。这将使驾车者感到高兴，并通过促进竞争，促使老牌汽车制造商清理他们的电动汽车法案。