经济学人：
Young investors, as well as everyone starting to save, have no shortage of lessons to learn. The main ones are classics. Begin early to give the magic of compounding time to work. Cut costs to stop that magic from being undone. Diversify. Do not try to time the market unless it is your job to do so. Stick to your strategy even when prices plummet and the sky seems to be falling in. Do not ruin it by chasing hot assets when the market is soaring, others are getting rich and you are getting jealous.
年轻的投资者以及每个开始储蓄的人都不乏值得学习的教训。主要的都是经典。尽早开始，以发挥复利工作时间的魔力。削减成本以防止这一魔力被破坏。多样化。不要试图把握市场时机，除非这是你的工作。即使价格暴跌、天塌下来，也要坚持你的策略。不要在市场飞涨、别人发财、你嫉妒的时候追逐热门资产，毁了你的策略。
To this time-worn list, add an altogether more dispiriting lesson specific to today’s youngsters: you will not enjoy anything like the returns your parents made. Even accounting for the global financial crisis of 2007-09, the four decades to 2021 were a golden age for investors. A broad index of global shares posted an annualised real return of 7.4%. Not only was this well above the figure of 4.3% for the preceding eight decades, but it was accompanied by a blistering run in the bond market. Over the same period, global bonds posted annualised real returns of 6.3%—a vastly better result than the 0% of the preceding 80 years.
在这个陈旧的清单中，添加一个针对当今年轻人的更令人沮丧的教训：你将无法享受像你父母那样的回报。即使考虑到 2007-09 年的全球金融危机，到 2021 年的四十年对于投资者来说也是黄金时期。全球股票广泛指数的年化实际回报率为 7.4%。这不仅远高于过去 80 年 4.3% 的数字，而且还伴随着债券市场的大幅上涨。同期，全球债券的年化实际回报率为 6.3%，远好于之前 80 年的 0%。
That golden age is now almost certainly over. It was brought about in the first place by globalisation, quiescent inflation and, most of all, a long decline in interest rates. Each of these trends has now kicked into reverse. As a consequence, youngsters must confront a more difficult set of investment choices—on how much to save, how to make the most out of markets that offer less and how to square their moral values with the search for returns. So far, many are choosing badly.
现在几乎可以肯定，那个黄金时代已经结束了。它首先是由全球化、静态通货膨胀以及最重要的是利率的长期下降造成的。这些趋势现在都已发生逆转。因此，年轻人必须面对一系列更加困难的投资选择——要储蓄多少，如何充分利用提供较少的市场，以及如何将道德价值观与对回报的追求结合起来。到目前为止，许多人都做出了错误的选择。
The constant refrain of the asset-management industry—that past performance is no guarantee of future returns—has rarely been more apt. Should market returns revert to longer-run averages, the difference for today’s young investors (defined as under-40s) would be huge. Including both the lacklustre years before the 1980s and the bumper ones thereafter, these long-run averages are 5% and 1.7% a year for stocks and bonds respectively. After 40 years of such returns, the real value of $1 invested in stocks would be $7.04, and in bonds $1.96. For those investing across the 40 years to 2021, the equivalent figures were $17.38 and $11.52.
资产管理行业的一贯说法——过去的表现并不能保证未来的回报——再恰当不过了。如果市场回报恢复到长期平均水平，对于当今的年轻投资者（定义为 40 岁以下）来说，差异将是巨大的。包括 20 世纪 80 年代之前的低迷年份和之后的丰收年份，股票和债券的长期平均年利率分别为 5% 和 1.7%。经过 40 年的这种回报后，投资于股票的 1 美元的实际价值将为 7.04 美元，投资于债券的实际价值为 1.96 美元。对于截至 2021 年 40 年间的投资，相应数字分别为 17.38 美元和 11.52 美元。
This creates two sources of danger for investors now starting out. The first is that they look at recent history and conclude markets are likely to contribute far more to their wealth than a longer view would suggest. A corollary is that they end up saving too little for retirement, assuming that investment returns will make up the rest. The second is even more demoralising: that years of unusually juicy returns have not merely given investors unrealistically high hopes, but have made it more likely that low returns lie ahead.
这给刚刚起步的投资者带来了两个危险源。首先，他们回顾了最近的历史，得出的结论是，市场对他们财富的贡献可能比长远观点所暗示的要大得多。一个推论是，他们最终为退休储蓄太少，假设投资回报将弥补其余部分。第二个更令人沮丧的是：多年来异常丰厚的回报不仅给投资者带来了不切实际的高期望，而且使未来更有可能出现低回报。
Antti Ilmanen of AQR, a hedge fund, sets out this case in “Investing Amid Low Expected Returns”, a book published last year. It is most easily understood by considering the long decline in bond yields that began in the 1980s. Since prices move inversely to yields, this decline led to large capital gains for bondholders—the source of the high returns they enjoyed over this period. Yet the closer yields came to zero, the less scope there was for capital gains in the future. In recent years, and especially recent months, yields have climbed sharply, with the nominal ten-year American Treasury yield rising from 0.5% in 2020 to 4.5% today. This still leaves nowhere near as much room for future capital gains as the close-to-16% yield of the early 1980s.
对冲基金 aqr 的安蒂 · 伊尔曼宁 (Antti Ilmanen) 在去年出版的《低预期回报投资》一书中阐述了这一案例。考虑一下 20 世纪 80 年代开始的债券收益率长期下降就很容易理解这一点。由于价格与收益率成反比，这种下跌为债券持有人带来了巨额资本收益——这是他们在此期间享受高回报的来源。然而，收益率越接近零，未来资本收益的空间就越小。近年来，尤其是近几个月，收益率大幅攀升，十年期美国国债名义收益率从 2020 年的 0.5% 升至如今的 4.5%。这仍然远不及 20 世纪 80 年代初接近 16% 的收益率，为未来的资本收益留下那么多空间。
The same logic applies to stocks, where dividend and earnings yields (the main sources of equity returns) fell alongside interest rates. Again, one result was the windfall valuation gains enjoyed by shareholders. Also again, these gains came, in essence, from bringing forward future returns—raising prices and thereby lowering the yields later investors could expect from dividend payouts and corporate profits. The cost was therefore more modest prospects for the next generation.
同样的逻辑也适用于股票，其中股息和收益收益率（股票回报的主要来源）随着利率的下降而下降。同样，结果之一是股东获得了意外的估值收益。同样，这些收益本质上来自未来回报——提高价格，从而降低投资者随后从股息支付和企业利润中预期的收益率。因此，对于下一代的前景而言，成本更为温和。
As the prices of virtually every asset class fell last year, one silver lining appeared to be that the resulting rise in yields would improve these prospects. This is true for the swathe of government bonds where real yields moved from negative to positive. It is also true for investors in corporate bonds and other forms of debt, subject to the caveat that rising borrowing costs raise the risk of companies defaulting. “If you can earn 12%, maybe 13%, on a really good day in senior secured bank debt, what else do you want to do in life?” Steve Schwarzman, boss of Blackstone, a private-investment firm, recently asked.
由于去年几乎所有资产类别的价格都下跌，一线希望似乎是由此带来的收益率上升将改善这些前景。对于实际收益率从负值转为正值的大量政府债券来说，情况就是如此。对于公司债券和其他形式债务的投资者来说也是如此，但需要注意的是，借贷成本上升会增加公司违约的风险。 “如果你能在高级担保银行债务的美好一天赚取 12%，也许 13%，那么你一生中还想做什么？”私人投资公司黑石集团的老板史蒂夫·施瓦茨曼(Steve Schwarzman)最近问道。
Even so, the long-term outlook for stocks, which have historically been the main source of investors’ returns, remains dim. Although prices dropped last year, they have spent most of this one staging a strong recovery. The result is a renewed squeeze on earnings yields, and hence on expected returns. For America’s S&P 500 index of large stocks, this squeeze is painfully tight. The equity risk premium, or the expected reward for investing in risky stocks over “safe” government bonds, has fallen to its lowest level in decades (see chart 1). Without improbably high and sustained earnings growth, the only possible outcomes are a significant crash in prices or years of disappointing returns.
即便如此，历史上一直是投资者回报主要来源的股票的长期前景仍然黯淡。尽管去年价格有所下降，但今年的大部分时间都在强劲复苏。其结果是收益率再次受到挤压，从而预期回报也受到挤压。对于美国标准普尔 500 指数的大型股票来说，这种挤压是痛苦的。股票风险溢价，即投资高风险股票相对于“安全”政府债券的预期回报，已降至数十年来的最低水平（见图1）。如果没有难以置信的高且持续的盈利增长，唯一可能的结果就是价格大幅下跌或多年令人失望的回报。
All this makes it unusually important for young savers to make sensible investment decisions. Faced with an unenviable set of market conditions, they have a stronger imperative than ever to make the most of what little is on offer. The good news is that today’s youngsters have better access to financial information, easy-to-use investment platforms and low-cost index funds than any generation before them. The bad news is that too many are falling victim to traps that will crimp their already meagre expected returns.
所有这些使得年轻储户做出明智的投资决策变得异常重要。面对一系列令人羡慕的市场状况，他们比以往任何时候都更有必要充分利用现有的资源。好消息是，今天的年轻人比以前的任何一代人都能更好地获取金融信息、易于使用的投资平台和低成本指数基金。坏消息是，太多人成为陷阱的受害者，这将削弱他们本已微薄的预期回报。
A little flush
The first trap—holding too much cash—is an old one. Yet youngsters are particularly vulnerable. Analysis of 7m retail accounts by Vanguard, an asset-management giant, at the end of 2022 found that younger generations allocate more to cash than older ones (see chart 2). The average portfolio for Generation Z (born after 1996) was 29% cash, compared with baby-boomers’ 19%.
第一个陷阱——持有过多现金——是一个老陷阱。然而，年轻人尤其容易受到伤害。资产管理巨头先锋集团 (Vanguard) 在 2022 年底对 700 万个零售账户的分析发现，年轻一代比老一代配置更多现金（见图 2）。 Z 一代（1996 年以后出生）的平均投资组合为 29% 现金，而婴儿潮一代的这一比例为 19%。
It could be that, at the end of a year during which asset prices dropped across the board, young investors were more likely to have taken shelter in cash. They may also have been tempted by months of headlines about central bankers raising interest rates—which, for those with longer memories, were less of a novelty. Andy Reed of Vanguard offers another possibility: that youngsters changing jobs and rolling their pension savings into a new account tend to have their portfolios switched into cash as a default option. Then, through inertia or forgetfulness, the vast majority never end up switching back to investments likely to earn them more in the long run.
可能是，在资产价格全面下跌的年底，年轻投资者更有可能寻求现金庇护。他们也可能受到几个月来有关央行行长加息的头条新闻的诱惑——对于那些记忆更久的人来说，这并不是什么新鲜事。先锋集团的安迪·里德（Andy Reed）提供了另一种可能性：年轻人更换工作并将养老金储蓄转入新账户时，往往会将其投资组合转为现金作为默认选择。然后，由于惯性或健忘，绝大多数人最终永远不会转回可能从长远来看能赚更多钱的投资。
Whatever its motivation, young investors’ preference for cash leaves them exposed to inflation and the opportunity cost of missing out on returns elsewhere. The months following Vanguard’s survey at the end of 2022 provide a case in point. Share prices surged, making gains that those who had sold up would have missed. More broadly, the long-run real return on Treasury bills (short-term government debt yielding similar rates to cash) since 1900 has been only 0.4% per year. In spite of central banks’ rate rises, for cash held on modern investment platforms the typical return is even lower than that on bills. Cash will struggle to maintain investors’ purchasing power, let alone increase it.
无论其动机如何，年轻投资者对现金的偏好使他们面临通货膨胀和错失其他地方回报的机会成本的风险。 Vanguard 在 2022 年底进行调查后的几个月就是一个很好的例子。股价飙升，那些抛售股票的人可能会错失收益。更广泛地说，自 1900 年以来，国库券（收益率与现金相似的短期政府债务）的长期实际回报率每年仅为 0.4%。尽管央行加息，但现代投资平台上持有的现金的典型回报率甚至低于票据回报率。现金将难以维持投资者的购买力，更不用说增加购买力了。
The second trap is the mirror image of the first: a reluctance to own bonds, the other “safe” asset class after cash. They make up just 5% of the typical Gen Z portfolio, compared with 20% for baby-boomers, and each generation is less likely to invest in them than the previous one. Combined with young investors’ cash holdings, this gives rise to a striking difference in the ratio between the two asset classes in generations’ portfolios. Whereas baby-boomers hold more bonds than cash, the ratio between the two in the typical millennial’s portfolio is 1:4. For Gen Z it is 1:6.
第二个陷阱是第一个陷阱的镜像：不愿拥有债券，这是继现金之后的另一种“安全”资产类别。他们仅占 Z 世代典型投资组合的 5%，而婴儿潮一代的比例为 20%，而且每一代人投资于他们的可能性都低于上一代。再加上年轻投资者的现金持有量，这导致两代人的投资组合中两种资产类别的比例存在显着差异。尽管婴儿潮一代持有的债券多于现金，但在典型的千禧一代的投资组合中，两者的比例为 1:4。对于 Z 世代来说，这个比例是 1:6。
Given the markets with which younger investors grew up, this may not be surprising. For years after the global financial crisis, government bonds across much of the rich world yielded little or even less than nothing. Then, as interest rates shot up last year, they took losses far too great to be considered properly “safe” assets.
考虑到年轻投资者成长的市场，这可能并不奇怪。全球金融危机发生后的许多年里，许多富裕国家的政府债券收益很少，甚至几乎没有收益。然后，随着去年利率飙升，它们遭受的损失太大，无法被视为适当的“安全”资产。
But even if disdain for bonds is understandable, it is not wise. They now offer higher yields than in the 2010s. More important, they have a tendency to outpace inflation that cash does not. The long-run real return on American bonds since 1900 has been 1.7% a year—not much compared with equities, but a lot more than cash.
但即使对债券的蔑视可以理解，但这并不明智。他们现在提供比 2010 年代更高的收益率。更重要的是，它们的通胀速度往往快于现金，而现金则不然。自 1900 年以来，美国债券的长期实际回报率为每年 1.7%——与股票相比并不高，但比现金高得多。
The name of the third trap depends on who is describing it. To the asset-management industry, it is “thematic investing”. Less politely, it is the practice of drumming up business by selling customised products in order to capture the latest market fad and flatter investors that they are canny enough to beat the market.
第三个陷阱的名称取决于描述它的人。对于资产管理行业来说，这就是“主题投资”。不那么客气地说，这是一种通过销售定制产品来招揽生意的做法，目的是捕捉最新的市场潮流，并让投资者相信他们足够精明，能够击败市场。
Today’s specialised bets are largely placed via exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have seen their assets under management soar to more than $10trn globally. There are ETFs betting on volatility, cannabis stocks and against the positions taken by Jim Cramer, an American television personality. More respectably, there are those seeking to profit from mega-themes that might actually drive returns, such as ageing populations and artificial intelligence. An enormous subcategory comprises strategies investing according to environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors.
如今的专业押注主要通过交易所交易基金 (ETF) 进行，这些基金管理的资产在全球范围内飙升至超过 10 万亿美元。有些 ETF 押注于波动性、大麻股票以及美国电视名人吉姆·克莱默 (Jim Cramer) 的头寸。更值得尊敬的是，有些人寻求从人口老龄化和人工智能等可能真正带来回报的大型主题中获利。一个巨大的子类别包括根据环境、社会和治理（ESG）因素进行的策略投资。
Niche strategies are nothing new, and nor are their deficiencies. Investors who use them face more volatility, less liquidity and chunky fees. Compared with those focused on the overall market, they take a greater risk that fashions will change. Even those who pick sensible themes are competing with professional money managers.
利基战略并不是什么新鲜事，它们的缺陷也不是。使用它们的投资者面临更大的波动性、更少的流动性和高额费用。与那些专注于整体市场的人相比，他们承受时尚变化的风险更大。即使是那些选择明智主题的人也在与专业资金经理竞争。
However the ease with which ETFs can be customised, advertised and sold with a few taps on a phone screen is something that previous generations of investors did not have to reckon with. So is the appeal to morality accompanying their marketing. ESG vehicles are presented to youngsters as the ethically neutral option. If there are investments that will save society and the planet while growing your savings at the same time, what kind of monster would buy the ordinary, dirty kind?
然而，只需在手机屏幕上点击几下即可轻松定制、宣传和销售 ETF，这是前几代投资者不必考虑的事情。他们的营销对道德的诉求也是如此。 ESG 汽车作为道德中立的选择呈现给年轻人。如果有一些投资可以拯救社会和地球，同时增加你的储蓄，什么样的怪物会购买普通的、肮脏的投资呢？
This both overstates the difference between ESG and “normal” funds, and papers over their impact on costs and returns. According to a recent study by the Harvard Business School, funds investing along ESG criteria charged substantially higher fees than the non-ESG kind. Moreover, the ESG funds had 68% of their assets invested in exactly the same holdings as the non-ESG ones, despite charging higher fees across their portfolios. Such funds also shun “dirty” assets, including fossil-fuel miners, whose profits are likely to generate higher investment yields if this shunning forces down their prices.
这既夸大了 ESG 基金与“普通”基金之间的差异，又掩盖了它们对成本和回报的影响。根据哈佛商学院最近的一项研究，按照 ESG 标准投资的基金收取的费用比非 ESG 类型的基金高得多。此外，ESG 基金 68% 的资产投资于与非 ESG 基金完全相同的资产，尽管其投资组合收取更高的费用。此类基金还回避“肮脏”资产，包括化石燃料矿商，如果这种回避迫使其价格下降，这些资产的利润可能会产生更高的投资收益率。
Next to the vast difference between the investment prospects of today’s youngsters and those of their parents, the benefits to be gained by avoiding these traps may seem small. In fact, it is precisely because markets look so unappealing that young investors must harvest returns. Meanwhile, the investment habits they are forming may well last for some time. Vanguard’s Mr Reed points to evidence that investors’ early experiences of markets shape their allocations over many years.
与当今年轻人的投资前景与其父辈的巨大差异相比，避免这些陷阱所获得的好处似乎微乎其微。事实上，正是因为市场看起来如此没有吸引力，年轻投资者才必须收获回报。与此同时，他们正在形成的投资习惯很可能会持续一段时间。先锋集团的里德先生指出，有证据表明，投资者的早期市场经历多年来影响着他们的配置。
Ordering the portfolios of Vanguard’s retail investors by the year their accounts were opened, his team has calculated the median equity allocation for each vintage (see chart 3). The results show that investors who opened accounts during a boom retain significantly higher equity allocations even decades later. The median investor who started out in 1999, as the dotcom bubble swelled, still held 86% of their portfolio in stocks in 2022. For those who began in 2004, when memories of the bubble bursting were still fresh, the equivalent figure was just 72%.
他的团队按照 Vanguard 散户投资者开户年份对他们的投资组合进行排序，计算出了每个年份的股票分配中位数（见图 3）。结果显示，在繁荣时期开设账户的投资者即使在几十年后仍保留了明显更高的股票配置。随着互联网泡沫的膨胀，从 1999 年开始投资的投资者中位数到 2022 年仍将 86% 的投资组合投资于股票。对于那些从 2004 年开始投资的投资者来说，当时泡沫破灭的记忆犹新，这一数字仅为 72 %。
Therefore it is very possible today’s young investors are choosing strategies they will follow for decades to come. Mr Ilmanen’s treatise on low expected returns opens with the “serenity prayer”, which asks for “the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference”. It might be the best investment advice out there. ■
因此，今天的年轻投资者很可能正在选择他们将在未来几十年遵循的策略。伊尔马宁先生关于低预期回报的论文以“平静祈祷”开头，要求“平静地接受我无法改变的事情，有勇气改变我可以改变的事情，并有智慧来区分这两者”。这可能是最好的投资建议。
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